Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.121333 0.142334 0.166687 0.197209 0.234708 0.279623 0.338016
2025-09-28 0.082661 0.104408 0.132019 0.170185 0.222431 0.292728 0.396707
2025-10-05 0.066702 0.090032 0.122206 0.170978 0.245162 0.357437 0.547792
2025-10-12 0.056237 0.080655 0.117013 0.177214 0.278830 0.452363 0.793087
2025-10-19 0.047428 0.071792 0.110671 0.180544 0.310863 0.561829 1.136291
2025-10-26 0.040576 0.064520 0.105253 0.184375 0.347086 0.701135 1.656107
2025-11-02 0.034008 0.056369 0.096546 0.180084 0.367665 0.825150 2.275479
2025-11-09 0.028228 0.048452 0.086521 0.170488 0.374400 0.926840 2.975248
2025-11-16 0.024683 0.043928 0.081958 0.171295 0.407665 1.129013 4.355094
2025-11-23 0.021732 0.039975 0.077677 0.171648 0.441720 1.370247 6.439626
2025-11-30 0.019540 0.037120 0.075092 0.175539 0.489921 1.717926 10.143105
2025-12-07 0.017576 0.034374 0.072147 0.177744 0.536208 2.125064 16.032266
2025-12-14 0.015466 0.031039 0.067344 0.174079 0.564957 2.523506 24.650489
2025-12-21 0.012838 0.026126 0.057718 0.153207 0.518080 2.480399 28.415908
2025-12-28 0.011709 0.024452 0.055875 0.155948 0.570912 3.139509 50.626838
2026-01-04 0.010904 0.023396 0.055416 0.163299 0.652976 4.220209 106.191151
2026-01-11 0.010082 0.022159 0.054200 0.167818 0.728904 5.523408 228.729017
2026-01-18 0.009362 0.021051 0.053108 0.172599 0.814664 7.303627 555.931551
2026-01-25 0.008511 0.019470 0.050289 0.169657 0.855124 8.810321 1205.408837
2026-02-01 0.007637 0.017697 0.046528 0.161512 0.856737 9.876178 2329.936686
2026-02-08 0.007096 0.016737 0.045100 0.162923 0.929472 12.658326 7867.744859
2026-02-15 0.006603 0.015832 0.043656 0.163796 1.002968 16.192707 36342.933364
2026-02-22 0.006224 0.015189 0.042939 0.167929 1.113086 21.968902 461515.116749